MatthewVB

In 2005, Google put to the test the crowd v. the individual. Similar to our previous legal battle, this one looks at who brings the better answer to the question: a group of people with varying levels of knowledge on a topic, or a single person who’s an expert in the field. The answer: the crowd. The Wisdom of Crowds argues that it’s through the power of crowds that more accurate predictions and information can be ascertained.

Google verified this through an internal project called, Google Predictive Markets (GPM) – no link provided cause I can find one accessible to outsiders (not that I’m an insider…yet). I think the genius in this is the use of the 20% time to work on validating theories out in the world. Google is known for wanting to organize the world’s information. Now we’re taking that to the next level – predicting the world’s information. If we can get enough people together to focus on one thing and put thoughts towards it, we can pool that data and predict, with great accuracy, what will happen (almost noetic in nature). Perhaps that isn’t worded the best. Take a straw poll on tons of people on a given topic, and the majority is likely to give you a more accurate answer than the experts in the field.

I can’t believe: a) how cool this is, and 2) how i didn’t know this was going on in the GooglePlex. If we could do this on a larger scale (note: I was planning a website around a similar topic about 2 years ago) and get hundreds of thousands of people involved, this type of data would have such a profound impact on the way the world is run. If people started believing in things that were about to happen – there actions would start pushing that belief to come true (personal philosophy, backed by some research somewhere I’m sure). That could mean people could have more control in their lives and in the world around them – leaving bigger impacts and doing greater things.

I’ve said too much, but remember this: if Google can organize the information, they can predict it too. (If you don’t believe me, just watch your next search – they’re guessing what you’re searching for…and they’re probably almost right on target.)

For those wanting a little audio, check out BOL #1198 for a good discussion regarding prediction markets (including the Hollywood Stock Exchange) — you should listen to the whole thing as it’s a great podcast, but at about 33:30 is where it starts.